By MARC LACEY

MEXICO CITY — The Cuban government’s announcement last week that it will release 52 political prisoners has done little to quell the island’s fiercest critics, who are asking President Raúl Castro, “What about the rest?”

But exactly how many people are said to remain jailed on the island because of their political beliefs varies widely, depending on who is doing the counting. On the low side, Amnesty International says that only one confirmed prisoner of conscience will remain in Cuba should the Castro government follow through on its plans to release all 52 in the coming months. That one prisoner is the lawyer Rolando Jiménez Posada, and the human rights group — which coined the term prisoner of conscience in the 1960s — called on Cuba to immediately release him as well.

Before the announcement of the latest planned release, the Cuban Commission on Human Rights, an independent group that is tolerated on the island but not recognized by the government, put the number of political prisoners at 167, which it said was the lowest since the 1959 revolution in which Fidel Castro came to power. Its new figure, should all 52 get out, will be 115.

Other groups, however, say the real figure is much higher. Human Rights Watch does not specify an exact number, but includes in its tally scores of people who have been arrested in recent years for the vague Cuban crime of “dangerousness."

Some former prisoners contend that there is a political element to so many detentions in Cuba — and that the government does not allow adequate legal representation to those it wants isolated. They say the real number probably reaches into the thousands.

“If the Castro tyranny really would like to make a good faith gesture, it ought to liberate all those prisoners in its dungeons,” said Miguel Sigler Amaya, an activist now based in Miami who spent two years in a Cuban prison for “disobedience” and “resistance,” and contends that thousands of fellow Cubans are detained on similarly nebulous charges. One of his brothers, Ariel, a political prisoner, was released last month after suffering health problems in prison, and another, Guido, is among those expected to be released.

The brothers were among the activists and journalists rounded up by the government in March 2003 in a mass crackdown on dissent known as Black Spring. Those detainees were arrested on various charges and convicted after brief, closed trials. Their sentences ranged from six years to 28 years.

For its part, the Cuban government puts the number of political prisoners that it is holding at zero. Fidel Castro, the ailing former president, acknowledged holding thousands of prisoners of conscience decades ago, but in recent years he has said that Cuban jails hold only common criminals and those who illegally acted as paid agents of the United States.

One reason for the varying figures is the definition of who, exactly, is a political prisoner. Another is that the Cuban government has not allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit its prisons.

Agreement on a precise figure is unlikely, as is determining why President Castro chose to make his drastic announcement now. Another looming question is how the United States, which has long called for the release of Cuba’s political prisoners and has welcomed those released in the past, will respond to President Castro’s overture.

“It’s something that is overdue but nevertheless very welcome.” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told reporters last week.

Acknowledging that its figure is on the low side, Amnesty International defines prisoners of conscience as those inmates jailed for their beliefs who have been found not to have used or advocated violence.

“Some other ones may not be on our radar,” said a spokeswoman for the group, Guadalupe Marengo, who noted that Amnesty had not been permitted to visit Cuba to conduct research in more than two decades.

Amnesty International said Mr. Posada, the one remaining Cuban inmate it considers a prisoner of conscience and thus entitled to immediate release, was given a 12-year sentence in 2003 for “disrespecting authority and revealing secrets about state security police,” after he participated in a peaceful demonstration calling attention to the plight of political prisoners.

Human Rights Watch, which conducted a surreptitious study inside Cuba last year, documented more than 40 cases of people imprisoned for “dangerousness” since Raúl Castro replaced his brother in 2006, as well as scores of other people sentenced for violating laws that criminalize free expression and association.

Noting that Cuba has conducted prisoner releases in the past and then gone on to fill its jails with even more political dissidents, Human Rights Watch said that the country’s judicial system clearly needed an overhaul.

“The international community needs to pressure Cuba to go beyond the periodic release of jailed dissidents and instead dismantle the repressive laws, courts and security forces that put them in prison in the first place,” said José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch, who secured the release of six prisoners from Cuba in 1995.

One aspect of the planned release that has critics of the Cuban government upset are reports that once the prisoners are liberated, they are to be flown out of the country, and thus will be far less able to continue their activism and hold the government accountable.


But Cardinal Jaime Ortega, Havana’s Roman Catholic archbishop, who played a critical role in negotiating the releases, suggested that leaving Cuba would be an option, not a requirement, for the former prisoners. The first 17 are expected to travel to Spain as early as Monday, church officials said. Others may choose other countries or decide to stay in Cuba, they said.

The decision, which was first reported by the Roman Catholic Church but later appeared in the Communist Party newspaper Granma, although with no mention that the inmates to be released were political prisoners, prompted the activist Guillermo Fariñas to end the hunger strike he had begun in February to press the government to release ailing prisoners.

But Mr. Fariñas would not take credit for the planned release. A statement that his supporters pressed up to a window in the hospital where he remained Sunday said, “Only Cuba, our nation, has won.”

Antonio Betancourt contributed reporting.

Raul Castro Government Continues to Criminalize Dissent

July 8, 2010

(Washington, DC) - The plan to release a group of Cuban political prisoners is a positive step, but the Cuban government should release all political prisoners, Human Rights Watch said today. Cuba should also dismantle its authoritarian laws and practices, which continue to deprive Cubans of their most basic rights, Human Rights Watch said.

The Catholic Archdiocese of Havana announced on July 7, 2010, that the Cuban government would release five political prisoners on the condition that they relocate to Spain with their families, and that an additional 47 political prisoners arrested in 2003 would be released in three to four months.

"While we are relieved for these prisoners and their families, the fact remains that scores of political prisoners locked up under Raul Castro continue to languish in Cuba's prisons," said José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. "So long as Cuba's draconian laws and sham trials remain in place, they will continue to restock the prison cells with new generations of innocent Cubans who dare to exercise their basic rights."

The political prisoners expected to be released are among 75 journalists, human rights defenders, labor activists, and other peaceful dissidents arrested in a massive crackdown by the Cuban government in March 2003. All 75 were tried in closed, summary trials that violated their most basic due process rights, and sentenced to an average of 19 years in prison.

Since taking over control of the government from Fidel Castro in July 2006, Raul Castro has incarcerated scores of political prisoners. The government has relied largely on a provision of the Criminal Code that allows authorities to imprison individuals without ever having committed a crime, on the allegation that they are "dangerous" and might commit one in the future. A recent Human Rights Watch report, "New Castro, Same Cuba," documented more than 40 cases of dissidents who have been imprisoned for "dangerousness" under the Raul Castro government, in addition to scores more sentenced for laws criminalizing free expression and association.

The Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation (CCDHRN), a respected human rights group that is not recognized by the Cuban government, has been able to document 167 cases of current political prisoners. Because Human Rights Watch has been able to document additional cases of people imprisoned for "dangerousness," Human Rights Watch believes the number of political prisoners is even higher.

Previous efforts by religious, civil, and political leaders to negotiate with the Cuban government have led to the release of some political prisoners. Reverend Jesse Jackson convinced Fidel Castro to release 26 political prisoners in 1984, and Human Rights Watch's Vivanco secured the release of six in 1995. Talks with Bill Richardson led to the release of three dissidents in 1996, and Jimmy Carter's 2002 visit prompted the release of one more. The visit of Pope John Paul II in 1998, after which more than 80 jailed dissidents were released, was the most successful of these efforts.

"The international community needs to pressure Cuba to go beyond the periodic release of jailed dissidents and instead dismantle the repressive laws, courts, and security forces that put them in prison in the first place," Vivanco said.

In the past, the Cuban government has released political prisoners on parole (licencia extrapenal) rather than releasing them unconditionally. By granting them parole only, the Cuban government leaves open the possibility of returning dissidents to prison to serve out their sentences in the future, intimidating them to keep them from exercising their fundamental rights.

Furthermore, in recent instances such as the February 2008 release of four political prisoners, the Cuban government has forced dissidents to choose between staying in prison and being exiled to Spain, which fundamentally violates their rights as Cuban citizens. Public statements of those involved in the negotiations for the planned releases suggest that the first five prisoners to be released were presented with a similar choice. Human Rights Watch recommend that all prisoners, including those from the group of 75, be released unconditionally and be allowed to stay in Cuba with their families.

The announcement of the prisoners' upcoming release came in the context of the 134-day hunger strike of the Cuban journalist Guillermo Fariñas, who was calling for the release of 26 political prisoners suffering from severe health problems. Fariñas began his hunger strike on February 24, the day after a political prisoner, Orlando Zapata Tamayo, died following his own 85-day hunger strike. Fariñas reportedly ended his hunger strike on July 8, following the announcement of the release.

Efforts by the US government to press for change in Cuba by imposing a sweeping embargo have proven to be a costly and misguided failure, Human Rights Watch said. The embargo has inflicted severe hardship on the Cuban population as a whole, while doing nothing to improve the human rights situation in Cuba. Rather than isolating Cuba, the policy has isolated the United States, alienating Washington's potential allies on this issue.